I've updated my oil predictions to include the latest data on the Caspian Sea oil and updated growth estimates. It looks like a serious shortfall by 2014. Buy Oil Futures for 2009 and help conserve by driving prices up. Making money is a side effect.
| Years to Depletion govt est | 2003 mb/day | 2004 mb/day | Est. 2014 mb/ day | WORLD OIL | |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | UK | ||
| 10 | 23.4 | 23.2 | 4.0 | N.America Norway | |
| 15 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.1 | China and others | |
| 20 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 15.0 | Russia and others | |
| 30 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | Equador | |
| 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.3 | Kazakstan | ||
| 25 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | Turkmenistan & Uzbekistan | |
| 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | Azerbaijan | ||
| 19 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | Nigeria | |
| 20 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | Libya | |
| 37 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | Qatar | |
| 13 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 | Iran | |
| 43 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4.5 | Venezuela | |
| 47 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 3.3 | Kuwait | |
| 80 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.8 | UAE | |
| 71 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4.0 | Iraq | |
| 77 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 14.0 | Saudi Arabia | |
| 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | Processing gains | ||
| 2003 | 2004 | 2014 | |||
| Supply | 77.3 | 79.4 | 81.1 | Millions of Barrels/day | |
| Demand | 77.0 | 81.4 | 87.9 | Millions of Barrels/day | |
| GAP: | -6.8 | Millions of Barrels/day | |||
| Estimated increases in production: | 150% | ||||
| Demand Growth: | 1.0% |
posted by Robert @ 10:40 AM
3 comments
3 Comments:
I think your estimates for Iran are a big high. I doubt they can achieve 5.6mb/day.
There is an article in today's SF Chronicle about the possiblity of carbon fuels several hundred miles below the earth's crust. It is based on an article in the current issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, although I could not find it on the PNAS site just now.
Fuel suspected deep inside Earth: Studies suggest heat under crust may not destroy methane gas
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/14/MNG048ODH01.DTL
The problem is not just finding more fossil fuels, we have to deal with global warming. The answer lies in a combination of conservation, wind, solar and pebble bed nuclear (Watch the Chinese).
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