4 reasons why we are 10 years from an energy crisis and gasoline shortages.
1. US domestic, Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK oil production wil drop off by 80% within 10 years, according to environmentalists and oil companies including Exxon.
2. All mideast countries must double their production to meet the shortfall. [do the math]
3. Saudi Arabia's largest wells are "watering out", implying that they are reaching the limit of their pumping capacity.
4. Proven Reserve estimates are not reliable and are wildly exaggerated. OPEC's accounting system rewards overestimates.
WORLD OIL SUPPLY |
Years to depletion
w/o increases |
Years to depletion doubling production* |
2002 daily mb |
2003 daily mb |
2012 daily prod at current levels |
2012 daily prod at
double current |
2012 daily
production (realistic estimate) |
UK |
5 |
5 |
2.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
USA/Canada/Meixco/Norway |
10 |
10 |
7.7 |
5.9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Canada/Mexico/Norway/other |
10 |
10 |
15.5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
China/Brazil/other
(15 year club) |
15 |
15 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
22 |
15 |
|
Russia/India/other
(20 year club) |
20 |
20 |
9.3 |
9.3 |
20 |
15 |
|
other (30 year club) |
30 |
30 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
Kazakstan |
55 |
41* |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
Nigeria |
26 |
13* |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
3.5 |
Libya |
59 |
29* |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
Qatar |
23 |
12* |
0.7 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
2 |
1.5 |
Azerb |
64 |
32* |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
Iran |
74 |
37* |
3.3 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
7.9 |
5 |
Venezuela |
74 |
37* |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
5.8 |
3.5 |
Kuwait |
138 |
69* |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
3 |
UAE |
121 |
60* |
2.3 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
4.4 |
3 |
Iraq |
153 |
77* |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.5 |
5 |
4 |
Saudi Arabia |
83 |
42* |
8.7 |
8.3 |
8.3 |
16 |
12 |
TOTAL Production |
73.7 |
73.7 |
99 |
71.4 |
|||
TOTAL Consumption |
75.7 |
77.0 |
83 |
83 |
83 |
||
GAP million barrels
per day |
6.3 |
oversupply |
12 |
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