Sunday, April 25, 2004

4 reasons why we are 10 years from an energy crisis and gasoline shortages.
 
1. US domestic, Canada, Mexico, Norway, UK oil production wil drop off by 80% within 10 years, according to environmentalists and oil companies including Exxon.
2. All mideast countries must double their production to meet the shortfall. [do the math]
3. Saudi Arabia's largest wells are "watering out", implying that they are reaching the limit of their pumping capacity.
4. Proven Reserve estimates are not reliable and are wildly exaggerated. OPEC's accounting system rewards overestimates.

WORLD OIL SUPPLY
Years to depletion w/o increases
Years to depletion
doubling
production*
2002 daily mb
2003 daily mb
2012
daily prod at current levels
2012 daily prod at double current
2012 daily production
(realistic estimate)
UK
5
5
2.5

0
0
0
USA/Canada/Meixco/Norway
10
10
7.7
5.9
0
0
0
Canada/Mexico/Norway/other
10
10
15.5

0
0
0
China/Brazil/other (15 year club)
15
15
11.1

11.1
22
15
Russia/India/other (20 year club)
20
20
9.3

9.3
20
15
other (30 year club)
30
30
1.3

1.3
1.3
1.3
Kazakstan
55
41*
1.0
1.1
1.1
2.2
1.8
Nigeria
26
13*
2.0
2.5
2.5
5
3.5
Libya
59
29*
1.4
1.4
1.4
2.8
2.2
Qatar
23
12*
0.7
0.9
0.9
2
1.5
Azerb
64
32*
0.3

0.3
0.6
0.6
Iran
74
37*
3.3
3.8
3.8
7.9
5
Venezuela
74
37*
2.9
2.6
2.9
5.8
3.5
Kuwait
138
69*
1.9
2.1
2.1
4.2
3
UAE
121
60*
2.3
2.2
2.2
4.4
3
Iraq
153
77*
2.0
1.9
2.5
5
4
Saudi Arabia
83
42*
8.7
8.3
8.3
16
12
TOTAL Production


73.7

73.7
99
71.4
TOTAL Consumption


75.7
77.0
83
83
83
GAP million barrels per day




6.3
oversupply

12

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